School Districts: Worse than the Worst Case Scenario

With pending deadlines for school districts to turn in their budgets, district officials are tasked with the challenge of predicting state funding when actual numbers from the state still remain elusive. And when the forecast of numbers fall off, it’s school districts that bear the brunt of the miscalculation.

School districts across the state have drafted budgets based on what they called the “worst case scenario,” a figure districts expected to lose if Gov. Jerry Brown’s proposal to extend $11.2 billion tax increases failed to get onto a ballot for a June election. When the initiative failed to receive the two-thirds vote from the Legislature, districts such as Glendora Unified and Charter Oak Unified, braced for an already massive $349-per student ADA cut. Teacher layoff notices have gone out and furlough days are being determined based on that figure.

But state leaders were perplexed this week as to why school districts did not account beyond the ADA cut, as the Legislative Analyst’s Office is now predicting a $4.3 billion reduction to K-12 public schools through an all-cuts budget. Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Torlakson has urged school districts to expect a $4.5 billion cut.

“Are we just hoping for the best?” Sen. Joe Simitian, D-Palo Alto told the Sacramento Bee.

But the reason seems simple to district officials – they’re not psychic.

“We have not taken any specific measures to offset an all cuts budget because we do not know what it looks like,” said Glendora Unified Assistant Superintendent Marc Chaldu. “…We are constantly looking at cost savings strategies to help if there are further reductions in revenues.”

When it comes to school budgets, there are few certainties coming from the state. Rather, districts have gone off of estimated figures and likely projections from county offices of education. For Glendora Unified and Charter Oak Unified, that direction came from the Los Angeles County Office of Education. Unsettling figures have swirled around should an all-cuts budget occur, with some even suggesting a $1,200 per student ADA cut, or cutting the school year up to one month.

The Legislative Analyst’s Office indicated an all-cuts budget could include eliminated funding for the Class Size Reduction program, decreasing the revenue limit to 2.2 percent and eliminated substitute teaching provisions.

But there is talk that an all-cuts budget is unlikely. Proposition 98 guarantees minimum state funding for schools and cutting beyond that minimum would require a two-thirds vote in the Legislature. Month-long furloughs would face a stiff challenge passing through teacher unions.

Chaldu also indicated that tax revenue from the recent tax season could add to the school state budget.

As school districts await word from the state, Chaldu said Glendora Unified is currently looking at all possible scenarios.

On top of the $2.5 million hit Glendora Unified expected with failure of the tax increase extensions, district officials are allocating for an additional  $2.5 million loss through the elimination of one-time federal funding.

Chaldu said the district has a “significant” amount of reserves to offset any deficiencies. He also pointed to the District of Choice program as a major cost absorber. Last year, the district accepted 1,200 District of Choice students, with school board members surmising that the program has generated up to $6 million for the district during Monday’s school board meeting.

But dropping enrollment continues to be factor for the district.

This year, the district’s Second Period Report (P-2), which measures daily attendance through the year, fell by 50 students since January. Last year’s decline from P-1 to P-2 was just 3.77.

The decline represents a loss of $250,000 in revenue, said Chaldu.

However, school board members suggested the decline in the P-2 Report may be an anomaly.

“I know that in the elementary and middle schools, there was a flu going around for months, you literally saw it move through the classrooms,” said School Board Member Denice Delgado. “It doesn’t surprise me that [enrollment] fell that much.”

*[Editor's Note] Assistant Superintendent Marc Chaldu was mistakenly referred to as Assistant Principal. His title is Assistant Superintendent of Glendora Unified School District.